Is 3G Becoming A Hard Sell?
According to Brazil’s telecom regulatory agency Anatel, Brazilian mobile carriers Telemig Celular and Telecom Americas (Claro) will not launch 3G services early due to a directive that seemingly prohibits frequencies other than the 1.9 GHz and 2.1 GHz bands from being used for 3G services. The two companies have developed 3G networks using the 3 GHz and 850 MHz bands and are pressuring Anatel to amend the 2000 regulation to permit 3G services over any frequency.
France was unable to find a qualified bidder for a 3G license it had put up for sale, and received only one bid from a company that did not meet the government’s financial requirements. If the auction had been successful, it would have opened the door to a fourth 3G carrier in that country.
3G services have also been delayed in Zimbabwe due to regulatory concerns.
China, meanwhile, is planning to submit a 4G specification to the ITU which would reportedly allow users to Web surf and transfer files at a much higher data rate than that offered by 3G carriers. China’s 3G efforts have also run aground, mired in standards disputes between carriers and the government. The ITU will begin accepting proposals for a 4G standard next year, with anticipated deployment in 2010.
So, all of this 3G gloom-and-doom begs the question, should we be looking at 3G at all? The convenience advantages of 3G are not in dispute, but the technology does have its drawbacks. Aside from the regulatory issues it has stirred up, 3G services really diminish the battery life of a phone. Until battery life issues can be addressed, even faster data rates and services promised by 4G standards will be of limited value.
I think that 3G will be around a bit longer than 2010, and I don’t think there will be a major move off of 3G once a 4G standard is issued. It doesn’t make sense to have the carriers rebuild their networks every few years. 3G’s best chance lies with mobile manufacturers’ ability to extend battery life. Look for better, more efficient displays and better use of power-saving technologies, like e-ink and e-paper in mobile phones.
Personally, I’m not content to sit back and wait for the regulators to sort things out. I’ll continue my 3G journey as planned.